Decision-making under uncertainty

Make sound decisions when information is incomplete and stakes are high, and explain them to those affected.

A brass telescope on a wooden stand by a window overlooking a hillside town, beside a navy notebook with a gold ribbon marker and a brass compass-rose paperweight

What you will be able to do

  • Frame a decision before looking for answers
  • Compare options against explicit criteria
  • Recognise the biases that distort individual and group decisions
  • Communicate a decision and its reasons clearly

Who it is for

  • Senior managers and decision-makers
  • Advisers who prepare decisions
  • Members of management committees

Prerequisites

  • None

Program

Framing the decision

  • What exactly is being decided, by whom, by when
  • Separating facts, assumptions and values
  • Who should be consulted

Options and criteria

  • Generating real alternatives
  • Weighing options against criteria
  • Using the evidence available, and knowing its limits

Uncertainty and bias

  • Scenarios and reversible decisions
  • Common biases in individuals and committees
  • Practices that reduce them

After the decision

  • Explaining the decision and its trade-offs
  • Monitoring whether it works
  • Reviewing decisions to learn, not to blame

How we work

  • Decision cases drawn from participants’ institutions
  • Group decision exercises with debriefing
  • A short decision memo written by each participant